“I only believe in statistics that I doctored myself” is a sentence that appears in countless articles and books about statistics, especially in German-speaking countries. It is frequently attributed to Winston Churchill. In all probability, however, it did not originate with the former British prime minister.
The Statistical Office of Baden-Württemberg investigated the question in its monthly publications. Despite intensive research and enquiries to people who had used the quotation, no reliable original source for such a statement by Churchill could be found.
It was later claimed in various places that the attribution originated with Joseph Goebbels. That story, too, has not been conclusively established. It remains unclear who first combined the ideas and how the attribution to Churchill found its way into newspapers and reference works.
The real lesson: A sentence about the misuse of statistics itself demonstrates the importance of source criticism. An attribution does not become true merely because it is repeated frequently.
This article belongs to the historical material of Klein-Singen.de and has been put into a readable form for the new website.